CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-05-31T00:15ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39185/-1
CME Note: Full-halo CME first seen in GOES-19 CCOR-1. Also seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 after the beginning of a downlink period with data streaming in starting at about 2025-05-31T01:00Z. No STEREO A COR2 imagery was available in real time for this CME due to a data gap which began at 2025-05-30T19:09Z. The source is an M8.1 flare from AR 14100 (N12E12). A significant area of opening field lines and dimming can be seen from near AR 14100 (N12E12) in SDO AIA 193/171/131/304 and GOES SUVI 284/304 beginning at 2025-05-30T23:47Z, immediately after the flare. Dimming and field line movement extends along a nearby filament which spans across most of the Earth-facing disk, stretching from approximately N30E05 to S15W35, snaking through the entire NW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk in a shape resembling the number '3'. It appears that most of the filamentary material ejected is from the upper lobe of the '3', and departs from approximately N10W15. This filament is also located directly next to, and runs parallel to, the SWPC-numbered Coronal Hole 52. Arrival signature: characterized by a sharp significant jump in B_total from ~7nT to above 24nT and by a jump in solar wind speed from the already elevated (by the preceding coronal high speed stream) ~700 km/s to over 1100 km/s. Ion temperature also has a significant temporary increase and there is a rather mediocre increase in ion density preceding this arrival, followed by a drop in density. After the initial shock/sheath there is a smooth rotation of magnetic field components (seen after 2025-06-01T12Z), indicating the possible start of a flux rope. There are also two more potential flux ropes seen in this 2-day solar wind signature down the road, likely indicating that there were three CMEs combined in a single front. This fast halo CME was predicted to potentially combine with (catch up) two slower, preceding, Earth-directed CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T05:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -121
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T07:12Z (-5.58h, +5.58h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:
CME input parameters: Apex direction (deg): -2.0 Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 46.0 initial CME speed: 1836.5 (+/- 50) km/s initial height: 21.5 R_sun initial time: 2025-05-31T01:52Z drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s time step: 10 min ensemble members: 50kLead Time: 10.40 hour(s)
Difference: -1.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2025-05-31T18:58Z
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